High Performance Computing

This section focuses on various forms of high-performance computing, not just high-performance computers (HPC) as a traditional supercomputer. The intent is to capture the quantum computing and cloud computing sectors which have unique applications and nuanced advancements relative to supercomputers.

HPC

High performance computers – or supercomputers – are generally carefully designed and connected standard computers. Supercomputers can use either CPU or GPU cores – versions of which can be found in every PC or laptop. Large numbers of either or both of these are interconnected to achieve the required performance characteristics. There is thus nothing particularly unique in the processing hardware of super computers. Because of this, the global leaders in supercomputing are also those who lead in commercial components for PCs, such as NVIDIA, Fujitsu, IBM, and Huawei. There is a running ‘top 500’ list[1] that tracks the most technically powerful supercomputers; however, this does not necessarily mean that they have the most useful applications. Factors that do not relate directly to the processor hardware such as network latency, energy use and cooling are among the main considerations that must be taken into account.  The figure below maps the top manufacturers of supercomputers globally based on the TOP500 dataset.

In this context, there are two principal modalities through which a supercomputer transfer could occur. First, a large number of CPUs or GPUs or a type suited for use in a supercomputer could be acquired by an actor in a country of concern. Second, a company could be contracted to design and build a supercomputer. The provision of either of these services should be controlled such that scrutiny can take place of the entities and end uses to which the supercomputer will be put.   A third pathway is the provision of cloud-based computing services as examined below.

Within the PRC, as with many other sectors, there are a few primary companies with a variety of subsidiaries that perform more specific research or production functions. The organization of industry also synergizes with the network of National Supercomputing Centers which house the computers and utilize them for research. The two main centers of strategic interest are the ones in Wuxi and Guangzhou which house a SunwayTaihuLight and Tianhe-2A supercomputer respectively. Sunway is the leading producer of supercomputers domestically in the PRC and the Sunway TaihuLight was the 6th most powerful supercomputer in the world at the time of writing this report with 93 petaflops. What makes this computer impressive is that the PRC claims this computer is built with solely domestically produced processors designed by Shanghai High Performance IC Design Center. This chip, the Sunway SW26010 is manufactured using the SMIC 28nm node.. While the limitations of the PRC’s semiconductor production is covered in another section, HPC specifically requires an interconnect technology that allows for the various CPUs to function in tandem. NVIDIA leads globally for this processor interconnect technology, at least for GPUs, and it is a chokepoint limitation on the PRC’s ability to indigenously produce full HPCs at the highest levels.

Quantum

Quantum computing is an emerging technology with limited commercial applications but potential applications for both strategic and civil sectors. The main difference between a quantum computer and a traditional HPC is the use of quantum bits or ‘qubits’ instead of the traditional ones and zeros for classical computing. The most common form of qubit is a superconducting qubit which are already used in a variety of quantum computers and were first used in prototype computers by IBM and Google. Global leaders in the quantum space are thus likely to be producers of traditional supercomputers. However, due to this being an emerging technology, the start-up space in quantum is fairly active. Thus, countries with the leading producers are the United States, the PRC, Canada, and the UK. It is important to note that many of the start-ups are only in the research and development stage and have yet to produce any commercial products. This can make tracking and managing all active entities in this strategic space quite difficult because nothing is being exported or imported. These factors do however place an important emphasis on the recruitment of personnel and the management of expertise on quantum technology and engineering.

In the PRC specifically, there is a strong connection in the quantum sector between government, universities, and commercial institutions. Because the space is fairly small with a niche and relatively new education required, university collaboration[2] is a common method of technology acquisition. Like in the US where large tech giants like IBM have a quantum division, major Chinese firms like Baidu, Huawei[3], and ZTE have quantum relevant divisions. That said, it is important to draw a distinction between quantum computing and quantum communications. While quantum computers are required to facilitate quantum communication, this section focuses on the hardware of the computers while the telecommunications section includes quantum communications.

Due to quantum computing being such a specialized field, the PRC has consolidated a lot of resources in the Anhui Province, namely in Hefei and Wuhu City.[4] The exception to this is the quantum departments of the larger companies that do not inherently specialize in quantum, like Baidu[5] and Huawei which may have their quantum headquarters in Beijing or Shanghai. This hub in Anhui houses multiple businesses and universities that have quantum departments. The USTC’s Division of Quantum Physics and Quantum Information in Hefei[6] is the premier research center in the PRC on quantum technology and actively recruits students and personnel that work on projects with national labs and companies in the area and can serve as a diversion risk for quantum technology and data. One company that exemplifies these connections is QuantumCTek in Hefei.[7] This start-up was founded by researchers at USTC and recruited students from the program for work. QuantumCTek developed the dual-use quantum encryption technology referenced in case study 16.

The PRC’s shortcomings in the ability to produce sub 10nm microchips, covered in the semiconductor section, also implicate quantum technology development. Since most applications are still theoretical, however, it hasn’t had an immediate impact on their ability to progress research in other areas. The PRC is not necessarily behind on the application of quantum technology relative to other states, but key challenges like cooling will be a limitation on all industry participants. Due diligence efforts should thus focus on controlling access to expertise and equipment, especially with relation to specific geographies in the PRC.

Cloud Computing

Cloud computing in the PRC is organized in a similar way with start ups being fairly common but larger companies, namely Alibaba, leading the pack domestically. One of the primary strategic uses of cloud computing is in supercomputing or quantum computing as a service. This is where a cloud provider would facilitate the opportunity for an organization to run programs on their hardware without the need to obtain the hardware themselves. This creates a unique control risk because it allows organizations to potentially benefit from controlled hardware while anywhere else in the world and without a need to obtain a license. Cloud service providers should thus consider due diligence on organizations buying cloud services and the locations of said organization, especially when running potentially strategic simulations or programs.

The most prominent cloud service providers are based in the United States, such as Microsoft, Amazon Web Services (AWS), and Google. The PRC does have a domestic competitor to these companies in Alibaba. Alibaba Cloud offers an Elastic GPU Service to facilitate deep learning, video processing, scientific computing, and visualization.[8] These services use the following GPUs: AMD FirePro S7150, NVIDIA Tesla M40, NVIDIA Tesla P100, NVIDIA Tesla P4, and NVIDIA Tesla V100, which are components of American origin. This highlights a reliance on foreign components to be competitive in this space. Thus, due diligence for cloud computing must also include effective due diligence by hardware producers.

Takeaways

Given these factors, Russia and China are likely to be reliant on the international marketplace for high performance computing capability in the years ahead, albeit in different ways. Russia’s lack of production capability and challenges in sourcing modern computer hardware will mean that Russia will be reliant on previous generations of technology for its military and strategic purposes. Russia is likely to continue to seek computer equipment and components illicitly and from the secondhand market. Russia is likely to seek manufacturing equipment and know-how including high performance computing consultants and computer and component design experts (see also the semiconductor sector).

China possesses and is likely to be able to continue to acquire advanced computing capabilities including supercomputers. Principally, these technologies are assembled using foreign source materials and components as China’s semiconductor industry (see below) is not yet competitive with the international marketplace. Given this, the focus for China should be in ensuring that any high-performance computers or components thereof supplied to China are not acquired by military and strategic linked entities. This, in particular, is likely to be challenging given the close integration of many Chinese universities with China’s strategic programs through its Military Civil Fusion program.